Why Noted American Economist Said U.S. Wants A ‘Weaker’ India; How His Prediction On Trump And Trade Deal Is Now Coming True

Noted economist Jeffrey Sachs had warned that the U.S. would block India’s rise. Months later, his prediction echoes in tariffs, stalled trade deals and strained ties.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with U.S. President Donald Trump (File photo: ANI)

Washington/New Delhi: Sharing his views on India-U.S. trade relations, American economist Jeffrey Sachs expressed strong doubts about the possibility of a successful deal between the two countries.

He said he would be very surprised if India managed to secure any trade deal with the United States because the U.S. government had no real interest in India’s progress and aimed to keep the country weak.

“If India manages to strike a deal with the United States, I would be extremely surprised. This government (President Donald Trump’s) does not care about India’s well-being,” he told journalist Shweta Punj at the ‘Rising Bharat Summit’ hosted by Moneycontrol in April this year.

Four months later, in August, the United States imposed a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods. The relationship between Washington and New Delhi has slid into a phase few predicted, but Sachs saw it coming.

Once dismissed by some as exaggerated, his warning now feels eerily close to today’s headlines.

Trump’s administration has made no secret of its stance, sanctions, public remarks criticising India’s oil trade with Russia and repeated pressure over the India-Pakistan standoff.
These moves, according to experts, chip away at India’s autonomy and challenge the framework of sovereign diplomacy.

India was among the few countries to engage early with Trump’s White House for a trade agreement. The talks dragged on and nothing concrete emerged. The gap widened.
Sachs tried to explain why, not with jargon but blunt words.

“America wants to use India against China. But make no mistake, this government has no interest in a stronger India,” he said.

He asked people to trust what he had seen up close. “Donald Trump is not going to open American doors to Indian manufacturers. This is a game and a strategic design to replace China, yes. But not with India,” he said.

He called India a successful economy, not once but thrice. “Very, very, very successful,” he said.

He spoke of a future where India grows even stronger. In that future, Sachs said, America will not like what it sees, just as it does not like China now.

Even if India opens its agriculture sector to U.S. companies, he said, the result would be the same. “Trump will never let Indian goods flood the U.S. market. His whole idea is to block low-cost manufacturers. He is not going to let India replace China,” he said.

Sachs did not stop at trade. He pointed to the larger structure, which is the global supply chain. “They want India to help crush China. But they do not want India inside the system either. Not now. Not ever,” he added.

He urged India to keep its options open. “Never close the door to China or Russia because America’s game is to prevent the rise of a strong India,” he said.

Now, in August, his words feel less like a theory and more like a lived truth.