India GDP News

India will drive a fifth of global growth in the coming decade and become essential to earnings growth for many multinational companies.

When it comes to inflation, the country is likely to clock 3.8 per cent inflation this year, followed by 4.0 per cent in 2026 -- well within the reach of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections, ADB said in a statement.

The Standard Chartered global outlook report expects India to clock steady GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in FY26 compared to 6.5 per cent in FY25. While strong macro fundamentals provide the cushion, the bank also flags that India is not immune to tariff risk and the outcome of trade talks with the US and the EU will be key to growth prospects.

CII President Rajiv Memani said that at a time when global economic and political volatility is at its highest in over two decades, India stands out as a bright spot in an increasingly fractured global economy.

HSBC Global Investment Research has updated its 100 indicators framework, which maps high frequency indicators to various sectors, and gives a thorough and sequential read on growth.

The Current Account Deficit or CAD (as per cent of GDP) is projected at 1.0 per cent in FY25 and 0.9 per cent in FY26, while the fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.4 per cent, according to a CareEdge Ratings report.

India’s GDP grew by 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25, which is the highest reading in the last four quarters.

In India, growth moderated in FY2024/25 (April 2024 to March 2025), partly reflecting a deceleration in industrial output growth.

Due to the tariff war and global outlook, demand for safe-haven assets has led to capital outflows and weighed on emerging market (EM) currencies, including India.

Strong domestic demand, resilient services and manufacturing sectors, and ongoing infrastructure investments have been cited as key drivers for India’s strong performance amid global uncertainties.

The India Meteorological Department expects an above-normal monsoon this fiscal (106 per cent of long-period average), which bodes well for agricultural production and inflation.

The earlier growth forecast was 6.1 per cent for FY26 and 6.3 per cent for FY27.

In contrast, the global outlook remains subdued amid rising trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a decline in cross-border investments.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said, “Our April 2025 World Economic Outlook projects significantly weaker global growth at 2.8 per cent for 2025 with growth downgrades for 127 countries making up 86 per cent of world GDP.”

For India, the global ratings agency reduced GDP growth estimates for both the 2024-25 fiscal year and the current 2025-26 fiscal year by 10 basis points to 6.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, amid fears of a global trade war.

Earlier in the day, referring to the IMF data, BJP leader Amit Malviya posted on the micro-blogging site X that India has reached a remarkable economic milestone, doubling its GDP from USD 2.1 trillion in 2015 to an impressive USD 4.3 trillion in 2025. 

The report highlights that while global trade expanded significantly in 2024, many developed nations faced trade contractions.

The report states that following a temporary slowdown in mid-2024, India's economic growth is expected to accelerate and register one of the fastest rates among the world’s large economies.

The GDP numbers in April-June and July-September too grew at a slower pace than was estimated by the central bank. The weak GDP numbers can be gauged from the consumption in the economy and latest stock market performance.

Government capital expenditure surged to Rs 2.7 lakh crore, marking about a 30 per cent increase compared to the average of the first two quarters which was a bit muted due to general elections.