India growth News

India will drive a fifth of global growth in the coming decade and become essential to earnings growth for many multinational companies.

When it comes to inflation, the country is likely to clock 3.8 per cent inflation this year, followed by 4.0 per cent in 2026 -- well within the reach of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections, ADB said in a statement.

The Standard Chartered global outlook report expects India to clock steady GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in FY26 compared to 6.5 per cent in FY25. While strong macro fundamentals provide the cushion, the bank also flags that India is not immune to tariff risk and the outcome of trade talks with the US and the EU will be key to growth prospects.

CII President Rajiv Memani said that at a time when global economic and political volatility is at its highest in over two decades, India stands out as a bright spot in an increasingly fractured global economy.

HSBC Global Investment Research has updated its 100 indicators framework, which maps high frequency indicators to various sectors, and gives a thorough and sequential read on growth.

The Current Account Deficit or CAD (as per cent of GDP) is projected at 1.0 per cent in FY25 and 0.9 per cent in FY26, while the fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.4 per cent, according to a CareEdge Ratings report.

From 2014 to 2024, organic growth varied sharply by region, with wealth managers in the Asia Pacific region (APAC) achieving rates of 50 per cent -- more than double that of their peers in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and North America, driven decisively by emerging markets like India, the report states.

India’s GDP grew by 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY25, which is the highest reading in the last four quarters.

In India, growth moderated in FY2024/25 (April 2024 to March 2025), partly reflecting a deceleration in industrial output growth.

Due to the tariff war and global outlook, demand for safe-haven assets has led to capital outflows and weighed on emerging market (EM) currencies, including India.

Strong domestic demand, resilient services and manufacturing sectors, and ongoing infrastructure investments have been cited as key drivers for India’s strong performance amid global uncertainties.

The sector supports over 7 million jobs across the value chain, directly and indirectly, while enabling rural industrialisation and reducing post-harvest losses.

The earlier growth forecast was 6.1 per cent for FY26 and 6.3 per cent for FY27.

India is poised to maximise opportunities as the global trade and cooperation environment evolves. 

In contrast, the global outlook remains subdued amid rising trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a decline in cross-border investments.

The UN's mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report said India's economy is projected to grow a tad faster next year at 6.4 per cent, even though it is also 0.3 per cent lower than the January projection.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said, “Our April 2025 World Economic Outlook projects significantly weaker global growth at 2.8 per cent for 2025 with growth downgrades for 127 countries making up 86 per cent of world GDP.”

In her one-on-one meetings with top CEOs, FM Sitharaman discussed opportunities in the fields of AI, Cloud and digital infrastructure.

For India, the global ratings agency reduced GDP growth estimates for both the 2024-25 fiscal year and the current 2025-26 fiscal year by 10 basis points to 6.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively, amid fears of a global trade war.

The report highlights that while global trade expanded significantly in 2024, many developed nations faced trade contractions.