Nomura News

Nomura expects a safeguard duty in the range of 10-15 per cent on steel imports. Based on a 12 per cent duty, the landed prices will be Rs 4,000 per tonne higher than the domestic spot prices, it said. "We believe the industry would be able to take a Rs 2,000 to 2,500 per tonne price hike in that scenario," the report states.

The brokerage said vaccinations are trailing at present, but the pace of inoculation will pick up after June as its analysis indicates increased supply.

It attributed the slowdown to the ongoing crisis in shadow banks, which were funding the consumption drive before liquidity crisis hit them hard last September, as well as weakening global growth and the resultant demand slump.

The FPIs are likely to raise issues such as the recently-introduced tax surcharge and seek either full rollback or suitably tweaked to keep them out of the higher tax net.

The Reserve Bank under the new governor had last week projected a GDP growth of 7.4 percent for 2019-20--7.2-7.4 percent in first half, and 7.5 percent in the second half.

With rising oil prices, depreciating rupee and outflow of portfolio investments, there are concerns that CAD might rise in the current fiscal.

The rate hike by RBI and the the oil prices raise concerns over the sustainability of what was termed as a "cyclical, broad-based recovery", Nomura's chief India economist Sonal Varma said.

The report further noted that India is expected to witness cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption.

Nomura's proprietary indices suggest that growth bottomed out in the second quarter and a recovery is underway in the third quarter, largely because consumption and investment indicators have improved in the third quarter.

Retail inflation may moderate to under 3 percent in October and may print 50 bps below the RBI projections of 4.2 percent by March.

SBI Mutal Fund (MF), Birla Sunlife MF, Birla Sunlife Trustee Company, ICICI Prudential MF and Nomura are among the anchor investors.

On inflation, the report said it has risen from its trough, but mainly due to supply-side factors (food and GST) or statistical factors (HRA), while the demand-push inflation is largely absent.

According to the draft papers, the government will be selling 9.6 crore shares, whereas the company itself will be selling 2.4 crore shares through the IPO.

Nomura, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment, Goldman Sachs, Reliance Nippon, DSP BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are among the anchor investors.

From the RBI's perspective, the GDP data are disappointing, but the current slowdown is largely due to GST, which should be seen as transitory, Japanese financial services major said, adding the cash-intensive sectors like trade, transportation and construction are rebounding.

Most MPC members voted for a rate cut in August owing to low inflation momentum and signs of weaker growth.

The Union Cabinet on June 7 had approved the minimum support price of 14 kharif (sown in summer) crops.

Notwithstanding the moderating inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank is expected to maintain its neutral policy stance at the policy review meet this week, says a Nomura report.

The minutes of the RBI's April 6 policy meeting suggest that the next move of the Central bank will likely be a hike in key policy rates, says a report.

India's GDP growth is likely to decelerate to 6.7 percent in March quarter but it will gradually recover to around 7.7 percent in 2018 supported by higher consumption and public spending, says a report.